Bounded Rationality and Risk Management in Thermal Soaring – Under Review at Technical Soaring (OSTIV)
This collaborative work explored how to manage sporting risk in thermal soaring. John Bird, a PhD candidate in Aeronautical Engineering and I statistically modelled the atmosphere. We calculated how much risk a pilot can accept over a long period, such as a competition and avoid landing out. We devised a cognitive model that allows the pilot to manage risk in the cockpit.
Modeling Gear Shifting– Soaring Magazine | April 2019
Soaring is Risky Business!– Soaring Magazine | March 2019
These two articles directed the risk management work at a broader soaring audience. It is less technical than the main paper and builds more on the points that are more actionable to most pilots.
Learning to Quit While You’re Ahead– Variometer Newletter | January 2018
This work assessed the psychology of racing. When you’re near other gliders, it can be difficult to regulate your emotions. If you’re lower than them, it is painful to accept that you are at an energy disadvantage. If things are going well, it can be hard to “shift down” and slow down to capitalize on your gains. This work discusses how energy and incentives change in the company of others.
You’ve Landed out… Now What? – Soaring Magazine | July 2014
You take a deep breath and the dust settles; you’ve made a safe landing in a field! But what happens now? Early in my soaring career, I realized that I had spent a lot of time thinking about the flying part of off field landings and not so much the retrieve. There’s a lot to retrieves and you should prepare for them.
Old Blog Posts
- Gaggles: The Madness or Wisdom of Crowds?
- Why Do Experienced Pilots Crash? – Prospect Theory and Soaring
- A Penny Wise and a Pound Foolish– Risk Management
- The Psychology of the Start Game
- The Psychology of Gaggles– Understanding and Exploiting their Behavior
- The Psychology of Final Glides– Avoid paying too much for certainty!
- A Penny Wise and a Pound Foolish– Sporting Risk Management
- Knowing When to Fold: The Art of Catching Up
- Everyone Knows That Arousal Leads to Bad Choices, Right?
- Flight Gizmos Beware!
- Don’t Anchor to a Speed!
- Thomas Bayes Goes Ridge Soaring
- Managing the Safety Risk of Ridge Soaring
- Set MC to 3-4 Knots
- The Moral Case for Transponders
- Situational Awareness and Intersections
- Satisfice then Optimize– Making Decisions Under Time Pressure
- But It Wasn’t Broken Yesterday!– An Appeal to Safety after a host of accidents
- Soaring the Blairstown Wave